Shale gas ?

Many decades ago, Albert Einstein said that ‘Everything is Energy 
and Energy is everything”. This claim still seems very true as we look 
at the impact of energy resources on today's modern society.

According to the latest International Energy Outlook, the world’s
energy consumption is projected to increase by 56 percent over the
30 years between 2010 and 2040. The expected energy use is set
to rise by 112 percent in developing Asia (led by China and India),
by 76 percent in the Middle East and by 85 percent in Africa.
This evolution impacts our planet and raises growing concerns on
how to deal with issues ranging from energy security and high oil
prices to the use of nuclear power, renewables and the impact of
CO2 emissions on the environment.

Two thirds of worldwide electricity generation today relies 
on fossil fuels; a big issue on the climate change map.
For some natural gas is a welcome solution. This seems to be the
case in the US where emissions fell to a 20-year low at the beginning
of this year, largely attributed to the move away from coal towards
unconventional gas resources.

In Europe shale gas remains very controversial; the limited experience 
to date of high-volume hydraulic fracturing at a large scale, leaves room 
for a lot of misinterpretation and assumptions. The environmental risks 
and potential impact draws a lot of attention from both environmental 
groups and the industry, albeit for different reasons. The good news is
 that the energy industry is responding very positively to increasing 
pressure by environmentalists by evolving to newer technologies to 
further reduce the overall environmental impact of horizontal drilling 
and hydraulic fracturing. With North America’s abundance in gas, 
Europe’s sputtering economy and Asia’s thirst for energy, shale gas 
could - if managed sustainably - become an important game 
changer redrawing the energy map around the world as other
 traditionally-importing countries follow suit.

But will it get that far and will shale gas become the new black gold?
Nothing is sure. At least not for Europe, though security of energy
supply is a major issue, shale gas is raising hopes only in some of
the EU-countries. It looks unlikely that this will change the energy
 situation in the EU in the long term.

Each country in the EU can independently decide which energy sources
to use to make up its energy mix and with shale gas reserves found
in a number of EU countries, each determines its own stakes.
Poland has shown its support; so has the United Kingdom while
France represents the diametrically opposite position. It is not a
surprise that the European Commission was struggling to come up with
a clear statement on the exploration of shale gas (and shale oil) when
the 28 members states have different opinions, interests and agendas.
This was addressed, at least partially, in a statement issued by the 
European Commission on January 22th 2014 on a recommendation
for minimum principles for shale gas.

The Climate and Energy Package 2030 outlined by the European
Commission in late January has failed to get the approval of the
industry's leading companies, many of whom affirm that European
governments have failed to take a consistent line on this. There are
different interests for everyone at play, but the bottom line remains that
unconventional gas was, and still is, an exciting game changer for the
 US economy where it is driving job creation both through investment
in the energy sector itself and the ripple effect this carries across other
sectors of the economy.

We will see what happens for Europe in the coming years. In the
meantime shale gas production may spread to new parts of the world and
special attention should be given to its impact on health and environment
 in countries where there is little experience with sustainable policies on
fracking operations such as on the African continent.

According to recent estimations of the US Energy Information 
Administration, South Africa has the eighth-largest technically 
recoverable shale gas reserves in the world. Under the presidency
of Jacob Zuma, the   Government moves ahead with the exploration 
of shale gas in the Karoo basin proving that they are committed to 
the development of South Africa’s shale gas potential and taking 
“a measured approach” towards the potential environmental impacts. 
However, this approach only seems to apply to new licensees and not 
to the many applications that had been submitted already before the 
original moratorium was put in place. This poses regulatory uncertainties
 that do not favor investment and sustainable development in South Africa 
any time soon.  

For Samuele Furfari, Professor at the University of Brussels and
 advisor to the EU DG Energy, shale gas and shale oil is a real revolution
and is here to stay. In his latest book on the energy counter revolution,
Vive les énergies fossils, he claims that the 40 years of OPEC
dominance with their unrealistic oil prices are over and that this gas
and oil abundance will put all back in balance. With a wealth of
conventional and unconventional oil and gas available, and the
crumbling of the link between the price of gas and the price of oil,
we might be at a tipping point in current geopolitics.

Improved and cleaner fracking technologies promise that the 
world will have more oil and more gas than ever before. 
But who will reap benefit of that? According to the United Nations, 
1.5 billion people still live without electricity and 3 billion people rely on 
traditional biomass for cooking and heating. One billion more have to 
live with unreliable electricity networks.  Access to clean, affordable 
modern energy is critical to social and economic development for 
many of us.  

Sustainable environmental challenges are huge but should not be
seen as an excuse or a burden to withhold us from creating
sustainable growth - not only for a lucky few - but for all of us living
together on this planet.

Benita Dreesen